Another five years with Turkey’s not-so-strong strongman

Introduction

In May 2023, President Erdoğan secured another five years in office, winning a tightly contested election that underscored Turkey’s shifting political landscape. Often billed abroad as a “strongman” leader, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan faces mounting economic struggles, growing public frustration, and concerns over democratic backsliding. While his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) remains firmly in power, cracks have appeared in his authoritarian image. This article examines Erdoğan’s re-election, the real sources of his strength and weakness, and what Turkish politics may look like over the next half-decade.

Erdoğan’s Fifth Term: What It Means

Election Outcome

Erdoğan’s victory in the runoff with opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu came with slightly more than 52% of the vote—enough to win but signaling a deeply divided electorate. Turnout exceeded 85%, reflecting voters’ high stakes in economic stability, democracy, and Turkey’s global role.

Consolidation of Power

Under the 2017 constitutional changes, Turkey shifted from a parliamentary to a presidential system, centralizing executive powers in Erdoğan’s hands. His re-election means continued control over:

• Cabinet Appointments: Erdoğan can choose and dismiss ministers at will.
• Legislative Agenda: The AKP, in alliance with the nationalist MHP, holds a comfortable parliamentary majority.
• Emergency Powers: Though formal emergency rules lifted in 2018, Erdoğan still wields broad decree powers.

Despite this, public opinion polls show a gradual erosion of his base, particularly among urban, well-educated voters disillusioned by soaring inflation and weakened rule of law.

The Reality Behind the “Strongman” Image

Economic Strains

Once a pillar of Erdoğan’s popularity, Turkey’s economy now drags his approval ratings down. Key issues include:

• Inflation Near 70%: Rapid price rises have slashed real incomes and eroded savings.
• Currency Volatility: The lira’s sharp decline against the dollar since 2021 forces higher import costs.
• Unemployment at 10%+: Jobless rates, especially among youth, remain stubbornly high.

Rather than raising interest rates to curb inflation, Erdoğan backed unorthodox monetary policies—insisting lower rates would spur growth—damaging his reputation with investors and voters alike.

Social and Regional Fractures

Erdoğan’s rural and conservative heartland largely delivered his win, but:

• Urban Discontent: Major cities like Istanbul and Ankara saw record opposition votes.
• Kurdish Discontent: Continued tensions in the southeast limit AKP’s reach in predominantly Kurdish provinces.
• Youth Exodus: Educated Turks, frustrated by economic and political restrictions, emigrate, draining talent.

These fractures demonstrate the limits of Erdoğan’s appeal and question how long his strongman persona can mask deeper societal rifts.

A Slow Drift Toward Authoritarianism

Control of Media and Judiciary

Under Erdoğan’s watch, press freedom has declined sharply:

• Journalist Imprisonments: Hundreds of reporters jailed or silenced since 2016.
• Pro-Government Media Dominance: Independent outlets struggle under financial and legal pressure.
• Judicial Appointments: Erdoğan directly influences top courts, raising fears of politicized justice.

These moves secure his short-term control but undermine institutional trust vital for long-term stability.

Erosion of Local Governance

• Mayor Removals: Opposition mayors in cities like Istanbul were suspended or jailed on terrorism charges, replaced by Erdoğan loyalists.
• Municipal Budget Cuts: Central government withheld funds from opposition-led municipalities, crippling local services.

By weakening local checks on power, Erdoğan ensures AKP dominance but sacrifices democratic pluralism.

Foreign Policy: Balancing East and West

NATO and Western Ties

Despite tensions with the US and EU over human rights and defense procurement (e.g., purchase of Russian S-400 missiles), Turkey remains a NATO member crucial for regional security. Erdoğan leverages this position to extract concessions:

• F-16 Fighter Sales: Ankara secured US approval for upgraded jets, despite earlier objections.
• Refugee Bargains: Turkey hosts over 3.5 million Syrian refugees, a key bargaining chip with Brussels for aid.

Pivot to the East

Frustrated with some Western criticism, Erdoğan deepens ties with:

• Russia: Energy deals like TurkStream gas pipelines and defense cooperation on air defenses.
• China: Investment in infrastructure projects and entry into the Belt and Road Initiative.
• Middle East: Repaired relations with Gulf states, securing investment and diplomatic backing.

This dual-track strategy maximizes Turkey’s leverage but risks alienating both blocs if mismanaged.

The Opposition’s Dilemma

Fragmented Coalitions

The main opposition alliance, the Nation Alliance, unites secular, nationalist, and Kurdish parties under a single ticket. Yet internal differences make:

• Policy Cohesion Hard: Divergent views on minority rights, economic plans, and foreign policy.
• Leadership Rivalries: Potential conflict over roles in a future coalition government.

Grassroots Energy

Opposition momentum in urban centers and on social media suggests an undercurrent of change. However, without unified leadership and distinct policy platforms, this energy may struggle to convert votes into lasting reforms.

Civil Society and Youth Movements

Environmental Protests

Campaigns against mega-projects like the Kanal Istanbul (artificial canal) highlight public engagement on ecological issues. Demonstrations draw students, professionals, and rural communities, challenging state narratives.

Digital Activism

With mainstream media constrained, activists turn to:

• Social Networks: TikTok and Instagram campaigns spearheaded by young influencers.
• Encrypted Apps: WhatsApp and Telegram to organize and share information under the radar.

This digital activism keeps pressure on Erdoğan’s government but faces government efforts to control online spaces through proposed social media regulations.

Looking Ahead: Five Years of Uncertain Stability

Economic Reforms or More Stimulus?

• Possible Rate Hikes: Under IMF or investor pressure, Erdoğan may relent on monetary policy, risking short-term political pain for long-term gains.
• Stimulus Spending: Alternatively, more subsidies and public works could sustain votes but worsen deficits and inflation.

Shifts in Global Alliances

Turkey’s balancing act between East and West will be tested by:

• US Elections: A new administration in Washington could either mend fences or deepen divides.
• EU Enlargement Talks: Ankara hopes for renewed EU accession momentum but faces continued democratic standards checks.

Opposition Renewal

For Turkish politics to shift, the opposition must:

• Unite Under Clear Leadership: Resolve internal rifts and present coherent policies.
• Engage Rural Voters: Expand beyond urban strongholds by addressing local economic and social concerns.
• Leverage Youth: Institutionalize digital activism into lasting civic movements that withstand crackdown.

Conclusion

Turkey’s Erdoğan re-election ushers in another five years under a leader whose “strongman” image masks real vulnerabilities—especially on the economic and democratic fronts. While Erdoğan retains vast powers, growing urban discontent, economic hardship, and a restive civil society signal a not-so-strong foundation. How he navigates economic reforms, balances global alliances, and responds to opposition pressures will determine whether Turkey can avoid deeper instability. For now, Turkish politics remain at a crossroads, with Erdoğan’s grip secure but his long-term survival far from guaranteed.