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Reviewed By Flozy Floz
Let’s be honest about the Eastern Conference finals: nobody reading this expects the Indiana Pacers to beat the Boston Celtics. All five CBS Sports predictors chose the Celtics, and none predicted that the series would go seven games. Take a look around the internet, and you’ll find mostly similar predictions. In one corner sits a 64-win team that has reached the Eastern Conference finals in six of the past eight seasons. In the other sits a 47-win team in its first playoff run as a group that needed significant opposing injuries in the first two rounds just to get here. The series line at DraftKings to open things up is Celtics -900, representing implied odds of 90% in Boston’s favor.
However, if Vegas picked winners, we wouldn’t have to play the actual games. Upsets happen, especially to the Celtics. Boston has lost as a favorite in three of the past four postseasons. Last spring, they blew their chance at the NBA Finals to the No. 8-seeded Miami Heat. These Pacers, by basically any quantitative measure, are better than that Heat team was. There is a scenario, however unlikely, in which Indiana beats Boston. So let’s game this out and figure out what exactly an Indiana upset would look like.
Pray to the Shooting Gods
Boston’s Shooting Dominance
There are plenty of reasons not to challenge the Celtics to a shootout. Boston led the NBA in 3-point attempts and came just a hair shy of leading the league in percentage as well. They made 140 more 3-pointers than any other team this season and came 12 shy of making more than any team in history. More importantly, they did that without a single player finishing in the top seven in the NBA in terms of made 3-pointers. Jayson Tatum ranked eighth with 229. He was the only Celtic in the top 20. Boston just became the first team in NBA history in which every rostered player made a 3-pointer. Everyone on their roster can shoot.
Indiana’s Shooting Prowess
Of course, the same is true for Indiana. The Pacers just had the best shooting playoff game in NBA history, but even over the greater season-long sample, the Pacers ranked ninth in 3-point percentage. More importantly, 3-point shooting introduces the important element of variance. When one team is significantly better than the other on paper, the underdog’s best tactic is to create a game as subject to randomness as possible. If both teams are firing up a steady stream of 3-pointers, the more the outcome becomes subjected to luck. You don’t need to outshoot the best shooting team in the NBA 82 times. You just need to do it four times out of seven. That’s well within the bounds of random chance.
Defensive Strategy
But more importantly, 3-pointers are the shots Indiana is designed to defend. No team is more intentional about the shots it allows than the Pacers. Indiana opponents averaged only 29.3 3-point attempts per game last season, more than two full 3’s fewer than any other team. The other end of that spectrum is that no team allowed more than Indiana’s 29.9 shots in the restricted area per game. Boston, usually for better but occasionally for worse, is a team built to win or lose by their jumper. The moment they realize how easily they can get to the basket in this series is the moment that they win it. But if Indiana can get them to keep shooting from deep, they’ve at least left open the possibility that Boston misses more shots than usual. They might get swept in a barrage of triples, but there’s no good strategy against a team as dominant as the Celtics. We’re looking for the least bad option.
Dictate Tempo and Control the Ball
Indiana’s Fast Pace
This is another potentially counterintuitive strategy in an upset attempt. Typically, underdogs are best served by slowing the game down. This is, again, a variance issue. The more possessions available to a favorite, the more chances it has to exert its superiority. But tempo is Indiana’s entire playing style. The Pacers rank No. 2 in the NBA in pace during the regular season, and they just managed to exert their pace on the NBA’s slowest team, the New York Knicks, in the second round. Playoff games, especially as we get deeper into the postseason, are never going to be the sort of track meets that you might see in, say, December or January, but that doesn’t mean tempo is irrelevant.
Ball Control
The Pacers are used to playing fast. Other teams, including the Celtics, who rank No. 19 in pace, are not. This matters more than anything from a ball-control perspective. No team turned the ball over less often this season than the Celtics. Of course, as we know, the Celtics (specifically, Jaylen Brown) have developed a bit of a turnover problem in high-leverage moments over the last few postseasons. Perhaps they’ve truly gotten over that weakness. But Indiana pressured Jalen Brunson full-court quite often in the Knicks series, and they’re likely going to do the same at points in this one.
Leverage Home Court Advantage
Another crucial factor in Indiana’s favor is their home court. The Pacers have one of the most enthusiastic fan bases in the NBA, and their arena can be a tough environment for any visiting team. Playing in front of a loud and supportive home crowd can provide a significant boost to the players’ morale and performance.
While the Celtics are seasoned and experienced, the energy and momentum from the home crowd could help the Pacers swing a game or two in their favor. Winning at least one of the first two games in Boston would be monumental, as it would shift the pressure back to the Celtics and give the Pacers a chance to capitalize on their home-court advantage.
Capitalize on Boston’s High-Leverage Moment Struggles
The Celtics have a history of struggling in high-leverage moments. As mentioned earlier, their turnover issues, particularly with Jaylen Brown, have been a problem in recent postseasons. High-pressure situations have sometimes led to Boston’s offensive scheme breaking down, resulting in poor shot selection and increased turnovers.
Indiana needs to exploit these moments. By maintaining defensive pressure and staying disciplined, the Pacers can force the Celtics into making mistakes. Keeping games close and forcing Boston into tight, high-stress situations could be a strategy that plays to Indiana’s advantage.
Embrace the Underdog Mentality
Being the underdog can be a powerful motivator. The Pacers have nothing to lose and everything to gain. This freedom can allow them to play loose, take risks, and make bold moves on the court. They can afford to experiment and try unconventional strategies, which could catch the Celtics off guard.
In contrast, the Celtics are under immense pressure to win. They are the favorites with a reputation to uphold and a championship aspiration. This pressure can sometimes lead to a tighter, more cautious style of play, which the Pacers can exploit by playing with more freedom and creativity.
X-Factors and Key Players
Tyrese Haliburton
Tyrese Haliburton is Indiana’s star and will need to perform at his best for the Pacers to have any chance of an upset. His playmaking, scoring, and leadership on the court are vital. Haliburton’s ability to create shots for himself and his teammates will be crucial in keeping up with Boston’s potent offense.
Bennedict Mathurin
Bennedict Mathurin, a rising star, can be an X-factor for the Pacers. His scoring ability and defensive prowess can provide the Pacers with the edge they need. Mathurin’s aggression on both ends of the floor can disrupt Boston’s rhythm and give Indiana a much-needed boost.
Myles Turner
Myles Turner’s shot-blocking and rebounding will be essential in this series. His presence in the paint can deter Boston from attacking the rim, forcing them to rely more on their perimeter shooting. Turner also needs to contribute offensively by stretching the floor with his 3-point shooting, drawing Boston’s big men away from the basket.
The Bench
The Pacers’ bench must outplay Boston’s reserves. Players like Andrew Nembhard, T.J. McConnell, and Aaron Nesmith need to provide significant contributions in terms of scoring, defense, and energy. Winning the bench battle can swing the momentum in Indiana’s favor, especially if they can exploit any weaknesses in Boston’s second unit.
Conclusion
The odds are undoubtedly against the Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals against the Boston Celtics. However, basketball games aren’t won on paper. By focusing on their strengths, exploiting Boston’s potential weaknesses, and playing with the freedom of an underdog, the Pacers have a fighting chance. They need to pray to the shooting gods, dictate the tempo, leverage their home court, capitalize on Boston’s high-leverage moment struggles, and have key players step up.
While an Indiana upset is unlikely, it’s not impossible. The beauty of the playoffs is that anything can happen, and the Pacers can draw inspiration from past upsets to fuel their quest. As the saying goes, that’s why they play the games.
