Written By 
Reviewed By Wyatt Remi
Introduction
At first glance, every NFL team seems determined to win. Yet, as draft day nears, some franchises quietly shift their focus to next season—sometimes by losing games on purpose. This tactic has earned the nickname “Nexting” in football circles. While it can net a coveted high draft pick, it carries big risks: alienating fans, inviting league penalties, and undermining competition. In this deep-dive, we’ll unpack the risky behavior of Nexting during the NFL draft, explore real-world examples, and suggest how the league can protect its integrity—and keep fans cheering for every down.
What Is “Nexting” in the NFL Draft?
Nexting refers to a team’s deliberate decision to perform poorly—or at least deprioritize winning—in order to improve its draft position. The NFL’s reverse-order draft rewards the worst records with earlier picks, creating a built-in incentive to lose late-season games when a top pick is on the line. Fans and media often spot this behavior most clearly in Week 17 or 18, when lottery-style drafts loom.
Why Teams Engage in Nexting
Misaligned Incentives
Owners, general managers, and coaches face different incentives than players. Coaches with shaky job security may prefer a younger roster built via the draft. Executives eyeing long-term rebuilding put playoff hopes on hold for a top prospect. Because the financial fallout of a few losses is minimal—ticket sales drop only marginally—teams can risk tanking without immediate pain.
Draft Value Over Wins
A single first-round pick, especially a quarterback, can reset a franchise. The chance of landing a player who becomes a star outweighs the benefit of a late-season win for a non-playoff team. Many front offices use probabilistic models to forecast where top talents will go, and that data fuels their Nexting strategies.
Case Studies: When Nexting Went Too Far
Houston Texans (2022)
In late 2022, the Texans won their final game despite fans actively hoping for a loss to secure the first overall pick. Supporters publicly cheered for defeat, revealing how deep Nexting can run in fan bases. The odd scenario—fans rooting against their own team—highlights the tactic’s ethical dilemma.
NBA vs. NFL Contrast
While the NBA uses a draft lottery to deter tanking, the NFL still applies pure reverse order. The fine imposed on an NBA team for resting key players showed how basketball leagues worry about deliberate losing. Some experts argue the NFL should adopt a similar lottery to remove guarantees and force teams to compete every week.
Impact on Fans and League Integrity
Fan Disillusionment
Nexting shatters the emotional bond between teams and supporters. Fans invest time, money, and passion into every game. When a franchise “throws” contests, loyalty erodes, ticket sales falter, and TV ratings dip—hurting the league’s bottom line.
Competitive Balance
Allowing intentional losing upends the principle of fair play. It gives resource-rich teams the power to manipulate outcomes, leaving smaller markets at a further disadvantage. Over time, Nexting can hollow out the authenticity of the sport, prompting calls for reform.
League Responses and Proposed Solutions
Draft Lotteries
Shifting to a lottery for the top picks—similar to the NBA—could reduce the certainty of securing the No. 1 spot. Teams would have only a chance at top selections, incentivizing them to compete in all games rather than calculate losses.
Stricter Penalties
The NFL could enforce fines, loss of draft picks, or reduced compensatory selections for teams found Nexting. Clear rules and swift action would discourage intentional losing.
Transparent Analytics
If teams must publicly share their draft probability models midseason, the spotlight could deter Nexting. When front-office strategies become common knowledge, fans and media pressure may push organizations to prioritize wins.
Balancing Short-Term Losses and Long-Term Gains
Some Nexting advocates argue that strategic rebuilds benefit leagues in the long term by improving parity. A team that endures a temporary drop in performance to add star talent can become competitive for years. However, the key is finding a middle ground: planned rebuilds via clean drafts, not by undermining individual games.
Conclusion
Nexting—intentional losing to chase better draft picks—poses a serious risk to the NFL’s spirit and its fans’ trust. While the hunt for franchise players drives this behavior, moral hazards and misaligned incentives must be checked. By adopting reforms like draft lotteries, enforcing penalties, and promoting transparency, the league can ensure every contest matters. Fans deserve genuine competition every Sunday, not calculated defeats. As the NFL considers its future, curbing Nexting will be crucial to preserving fair play and keeping the game thrilling for generations to come.
Fans deserve genuine competition every Sunday, not calculated defeats. As the NFL considers its future, curbing Nexting will be crucial to preserving fair play and keeping the game thrilling for generations to come. While the hunt for franchise players drives this behavior, moral hazards and misaligned incentives must be checked. By adopting reforms like draft lotteries, enforcing penalties, and promoting transparency, the league can ensure every contest matter.
